This is the first edition of a quarterly tracker of the numbers that decide whether satellites get financed: how many commercial GEO satellites are being ordered, how many need replacing, and who is putting money into the assets themselves. It covers 01/01/2026 to 22/10/2026 and will be updated each quarter at the same address. Every row is taken from a public, dated source, listed under each table.
The headline numbers
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial GEO satellite orders, 2026 to 21/09 | 14, against 10 for all of 2025 | Novaspace via SatNews, 21/09/2026 |
| GEO replacements falling due in 2029, when today's orders would be delivered | About 29 | Caelum analysis of public tracking data |
| Export-credit and development finance for satellite builds, 2026 | About €1.0bn (Eutelsat) plus US$468m (Astranis) and €25m (OQ Technology) | Company and agency releases |
| Private space investment, twelve months to Q3 2026 | US$40.1bn across 666 deals | Seraphim SpaceTech Investment Tracker, 16/10/2026 |
| Largest capital-markets event | SpaceX IPO, about US$86bn including the over-allotment | SpaceX, 15/06/2026 |
Three readings follow from the detail below. Orders are running at about half the replacement curve, so operators are extending old satellites or consolidating fleets rather than replacing one for one. The money for the satellites themselves still comes mostly from export-credit agencies, with lessors at the commitment stage. And GEO operators refinancing in the bond market this year paid between 5.625% and 7.375%, which is the cost an asset-level structure has to beat.
Commercial GEO orders
| Announced | Buyer | Manufacturer | Satellites | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2026 | MB Group (Oman) | Astranis | 1 MicroGEO | Not disclosed |
| 19/03/2026 | SLI (lessor, for lease to operators) | ReOrbit | 2 software-defined small GEO | €150m |
| 20/03/2026 | Space Compass (Japan) | SWISSto12 | 1 HummingSat optical relay | Not disclosed |
| 07/04/2026 | 4iG (Hungary), HUGEO, dual-use | Northrop Grumman | 1 GEOStar-3 | Not disclosed |
| 29/05/2026 | Viasat (Inmarsat I-8 F4) | SWISSto12 | 1 HummingSat | Not disclosed |
| 30/06/2026 | Es'hailSat (Qatar), shared with Türksat | Thales Alenia Space | 1 Space INSPIRE | Not disclosed |
| 13/08/2026 | Undisclosed commercial customer | Intuitive Machines | 3 | Over US$600m |
| 10/09/2026 | stc group (Saudi Arabia) | Astranis | 1 MicroGEO | Not disclosed |
| 14/09/2026 | NIGCOMSAT (Nigeria, state-owned) | Thales Alenia Space | 1 Spacebus | Not disclosed |
| 24/09/2026 | Arabsat (ARABSAT-50) | China Great Wall Industry Corp. | 1 | Not disclosed |
Public announcements account for 11 satellites up to 21/09, against Novaspace's count of 14. The difference is most likely orders that have not been announced, including the three Novaspace links to the upper C-band transition. Government and military orders, such as SpainSat NG III and two US Space Force satellites from Rocket Lab, are excluded. The 2025 baseline also depends on definitions: Novaspace counts 10 and Quilty Space counts 11.
Sources: Via Satellite (26/01, 30/06, 12/09, 25/09/2026); ReOrbit and SatNews (19/03/2026); Business Wire (20/03/2026); SatNews (11/04, 30/06, 19/08, 21/09/2026); Space Intel Report (01/06/2026); SpaceNews (13/08/2026); Astranis (10/09/2026); Thales Alenia Space (14/09/2026); Quilty Space (09/02/2026).
Replacement demand
Our count of the 573 active GEO satellites in public tracking data, after removing government and military systems and Chinese and Indian state fleets, leaves 321 a commercial lessor could finance. Assuming replacement 15 years after launch, the 126 satellites already past that age clearing evenly over five years, and seven in ten replaced one for one:
| In-orbit delivery year | Reaching 15 years | Backlog clearing | Replacement demand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19 | 25 | 31 |
| 2028 | 14 | 25 | 27 |
| 2029 | 16 | 25 | 29 |
| 2030 | 18 | 25 | 30 |
| 2031 | 20 | 25 | 32 |
| 2032 | 24 | — | 17 |
| 2033 | 15 | — | 11 |
| 2034 | 11 | — | 8 |
| 2035 | 8 | — | 6 |
| 2036 | 8 | — | 6 |
Satellites ordered in 2026 arrive in orbit around 2029, when about 29 replacements fall due. Fourteen orders against that is roughly half the curve. The gap is where life extension and fleet consolidation are doing the work, and it is why the replacement wave a financier can underwrite is concentrated in the next five years. The method is set out in GEO satellite orders in 2026.
Caelum analysis of public tracking data as at 01/2026. Indicative, not a forecast. Rows rounded.
Asset-level financings
| Date | Parties | Asset | Instrument | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | Eutelsat and EQT Infrastructure | Carve-out of more than 70 teleports | Sale, terminated after French government intervention | Not disclosed |
| 11/02/2026 | Eutelsat; Bpifrance Assurance Export guarantee; Société Générale and four banks | 440 OneWeb LEO satellites from Airbus | Export-credit loan | About €1.0bn |
| 25/02/2026 | EIB (InvestEU) and OQ Technology | 20 or more direct-to-device LEO satellites | Development-bank venture debt | €25m |
| 19/03/2026 | SLI and ReOrbit | 2 small GEO satellites | Purchase for lease | €150m |
| 14/05/2026 | Intuitive Machines; Goonhilly Earth Station and COMSAT | Teleports in the UK and US | Acquisition, closed 03/08/2026 | £37m plus US$10m |
| 15/06/2026 | Gilat and Comtech | Satellite ground equipment business | Acquisition | US$157.5m |
| 14/09/2026 | SLI and Sophia Space | 10-satellite edge-computing constellation | Purchase-and-lease framework, non-binding letter of support | US$300m |
| 30/09/2026 | EXIM and Astranis, arranged by J.P. Morgan | MicroGEO production and launch | Export-credit direct loan | US$468m |
Two things stand out. The largest asset financings of the year are export-credit loans tied to the country of manufacture, which is how most satellites have been financed for two decades. And the lessor activity that exists is at the commitment stage: one purchase contract and one non-binding framework, both from the same lessor. A leasing market for satellites is forming, but this table does not yet show a closed sale-leaseback of a satellite in orbit.
Sources: Via Satellite and EQT (29/01/2026); Broadband TV News (11/02/2026); EIB (25/02/2026); SLI (19/03 and 14/09/2026); Intuitive Machines (14/05 and 03/08/2026); Comtech (15/06/2026); GeekWire (14/09/2026); Astranis (30/09/2026).
Capital markets and M&A
| Date | Issuer or acquirer | Transaction | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | Eutelsat | Senior bonds, 5 years at 5.75% and 7 years at 6.25% | €1.5bn |
| 17/03/2026 | SES | Subordinated perpetual hybrid at 7.375% | €650m |
| 14/04/2026 | Amazon | Acquisition of Globalstar | US$11.57bn |
| 06/05/2026 | Astranis | Equity and debt raise | US$450m |
| 14/05/2026 | Iridium | Acquisition of 61% of Aireon | About US$367m plus debt assumed |
| 11/06/2026 | SpaceX | IPO at US$135 a share, Nasdaq SPCX | About US$86bn including over-allotment |
| 29/06/2026 | Rocket Lab | Acquisition of Iridium | About US$8bn enterprise value |
| 15/07/2026 | AST SpaceMobile | Convertible notes due 2034 at 1.625% | US$1.0bn |
| 29/09/2026 | SES | Senior bonds due 2031 at 5.625% | €500m |
The bond rows are the useful ones for an asset financier. Two of Europe's largest GEO operators raised senior unsecured debt this year at 5.625% to 6.25%, and SES paid 7.375% for hybrid capital. That is the corporate cost of funding a satellite on balance sheet, and it is the benchmark a lease secured on a specific, contracted satellite has to undercut.
Sources: AMF and Space Intel Report (06/03/2026); SES filings (17/03 and 29/09/2026); Globalstar and DatacenterDynamics (14/04/2026); Astranis and SpaceNews (06/05/2026); Iridium (14/05/2026); Reuters (11/06/2026) and SpaceX (15/06/2026); Rocket Lab (29/06/2026); Business Wire (15/07/2026).
Market aggregates
| Tracker | Measure | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Seraphim | Private space investment, Q3 2026 | US$20.8bn across 216 deals, about half of it Blue Origin's US$10bn raise |
| Seraphim | Twelve months to Q3 2026 | US$40.1bn across 666 deals |
| Space Capital | Space investment, 2026 to Q3 | US$92.5bn, which appears to include public-market capital such as the SpaceX IPO |
| Novaspace | Global space economy, 2025 | US$626.4bn |
The Seraphim and Space Capital totals use different definitions and should not be added together.
Sources: Seraphim SpaceTech Investment Tracker (16/10/2026); Space Capital, Space IQ Q3 2026 (13/10/2026); Novaspace (01/2026).
About this tracker
The tracker counts announced transactions only, in the currency announced, without conversion. A commercial GEO order is one placed by an operator or lessor for a satellite selling capacity commercially; government, military and state-security programmes are excluded, and dual-use or state-owned commercial operators are flagged. The next edition, covering Q4 2026, follows in January 2027. Corrections and additions with a public source are welcome at info@caelumleasing.com.
Caelum Space Leasing finances satellites and ground stations through Irish Section 110 vehicles. The basics of how a satellite lease works are in Space Assets 101, and our approach for investors is on the investor page. The tracker may be quoted with attribution to Caelum Space Leasing and a link to this page.
Figures as reported by the sources named. Nothing here is legal, tax or investment advice.